Wednesday, June 11, 2008

The 2008 Dance Card Is Set

Last night was the filing deadline for Virginia Beach City Council and we had - once again - a number of last minute filings.

Mayor: Meyera Oberndorf, Will Sessoms, Scott Taylor, John Moss

Meyera has the name recognition, while Sessoms has a pile of cash.

Does Scott Taylor blossom? Can he raise enough money and/or meet enough people that voters know who he is in November? Does Taylor become the choice for suburbanites tired of Oberndorf and Sessoms, but wary of John Moss' extremist supporters?

Virginia Beach Taxpayers Alliance (VBTA) Chairman John Moss should be the Ron Paul of this campaign: a group of hardcore supporters, but polling in single digits.

The wild card here is the African-American Political Action Committee (AAPAC) endorsement. As a plethora of African-American voters should be coming to the polls for Obama (plus Allen and Jackson), how do they vote for Mayor?

At-Large: Rosemary Wilson, Georgia Allen, Leona "Lee" Shuler, Keith Strausbaugh, and Lawrence Teator

Rosemary Wilson is the clear favorite, but Georgia Allen's challenge should make this contest the most fun to watch.

At the Republican 2nd District Convention, I was told Leona "Lee" Shuler was being recruited in by the VBTA.

We also have Keith Strausbaugh and Lawrence Teator, neither of who will probably break out of single digits.

Rose Hall: Glenn Davis and Reba McClanan

This is Glenn Davis' race to lose. Besides the VBTA and Bill Bailey, who wants to continue Reba's automatic "No" vote?

Kempsville: Harry Diezel, Andrew Jackson, and Joe Flores

Flores' filing is the "WTF?!?" on the ballot. The African-American leaders who have been working with Flores on Lake Edward issues have been behind Jackson for a few months now.

If both Jackson and Flores are on the ballot in November, they split and Diezel wins. If one of them withdraws, Jackson (or Flores) can potentially win in a one-on-one.

Centerville: Bob Dyer

Dyer runs unopposed as the ballot petitions that were being circulated for Don Weeks were never filed. (There's an interesting story there, but I've been asked to play it cool.)


Anonymous said...

Henry: In answer to your question about extending Reba's "No" voting record: Yes there are many others. If I recall it correctly, over 34,000 citizens voted for her in 2004 as she had the most votes of any candidate in any of the races...

It might be a new year but it isn't likey to change. BTW: I'm not on her re-election committee or associated with her effort. I'm just a voter who feels that she remains the best candidate in the race.

Avenging Archangel said... 2004 (and 2000) McClanan ran unopposed.

Anonymous said...

Uh...That means nobody opposed her "No" votes. That means the citizens love her "No" votes...

That means she is very popular in Virginia Beach. Davis has a long hill to climb if he is going to beat her. Frankly I don't believe the voters will support him or Sessoms. It isn't an auction, it is an election... Reba has the support of the citizens even if the special interest business community wants her replaced. Remember business donate to candidates but citizen voters elect them. Remember the "Yes" traffic vote? The businesses supported it but it went down in flames because of the citizen vote. Same thing with Reba and Davis... Remember that you read it here first!

Avenging Archangel said...

I'll take your attacks on Davis' supposed ties to Sessoms seriously when you endorse Georgia Allen for City Council. After all, from 2000-2002 Rosemary Wilson was part of Sessoms' majority on City Council.

You can't oppose someone on the possibility that they might vote with Sessoms (Davis) while supporting someone who actually did (Wilson).

Anonymous said...

Henry: You know it is true even if you don't want to admit it. Davis will be a Sessoms yes vote and that is why Reba is being targeted. You know it really has nothing to do with her record in the past. As for the connection, just follow the money trail.

I haven't endorsed anyone in 2008. Still too early and I'm just putting the group together. It will be fun. I might even take a pass on a couple of races just to leave them open.

Anonymous said...

My take on all this:

1. Mayor's race: Meyera will win this one with Sessoms a close second. His money will buy him second place but not much more than that. My only real hope is that Scott Taylor beats Moss.

2. Kempsville: Diezel wins this one probably only because of the split. He has been pretty much "under the radar" since he has been on council and I don't know that he has much recognition outside the fire department.

3. Rose Hall: Anyone but Reba in my opinion. I know, it sounds a lot like the VBTA mantra of "re-elect no one" but she really needs to leave. Too many no votes without explanation for my taste. Vote no if you want, but at least explain why.

4. At-Large: Wilson has this one in the bag unless she commits a major felony on national TV. And thanks for outting the VBTA candidate...don't want another DeSteph to slip through!

5. Centerville: I think Dyer may have this one.

Anonymous said...

She is not a VBTA candidate - she is a Indigo Dunes activist that realized City Council needs some new blood.

VBTA Board member

BTW Reba deserves to win her seat again. She stands up for the citizens - over and over and over.

Avenging Archangel said...

So Reid gets caught lying - again.

It was Wally Erb himself who told me that Robert Dean had recruited her in.

So even Reid realizes the only way a VBTA candidate has a prayer is to pretend that they're not a VBTA candidate.

Anonymous said...

So basically the VBTA in an act of desparation to get someone, anyone, in the at-large race picked her? She is truly the best that they could do?

And of course they hide her affiliation...same thing they did successfully with DeSteph in 2006.

Dean is tired of losing (against Meyera, Rosemary & Reba). Erb lost to Eure and countless other write-in attempts. Weeks bails out at the last minute when he can't get any support. The original DEW team is no more.

Others have said it before, the VBTA is doomed as a viable entity after November 4.