Tuesday, May 26, 2009

63% Prefer Ron's Chances

The poll question was which House of Delegates seat is more likely to be a Republican pickup in November, the 21st District or the 83rd? 63% of you prefered Ron Villanueva's shot at beating Bobby Mathieson to Chris Stolle's odds against Joe Bouchard.

I agree. Speaking to a couple Republican insiders in the wake of the November, 2007 election, the conventional wisdom was that Bouchard had won narrowly and that we could easily oust him in 2009. There are a couple flaws in that argument:

1. Bouchard won despite a poor Get Out The Vote (GOTV) effort that resulted in lackluster turnout in some Democratic-leaning areas. I don't expect the Dems to make that mistake twice, especially with the statewide slate on the ballot this year.

2. Bouchard impresses people that hear him speak in a forum.

Therefore, I believe the 21st will be the easier fight to win.

The new question: will Virginia Beach raise taxes next year? Virginia News Source recently pushed the line that there is a "massive" tax increase coming. Personally, I think that story is a lie to keep their minions in line, as I can't imagine City Council hiking taxes right before 6 incumbents hit the campaign trail for reelection. What do you think?


Anonymous said...

Chris Stolle is a nice guy but a poor speaker.

Matheison has not accomplished much of anything and seems to shy away from public events. There is even talk that he was one of many candidates for sheriff before John Bell came out.

Ron V. has a pretty big grass roots base. As long as he doesn't take the race for granted, it is his to lose.

Anonymous said...

Ron is always late, never has a thought of his own and can't make a decision unless he knows which side has the most votes... He has to ask Louis Jones before he votes as he hasn't done his homework and read the briefs prior to the city council meetings. As far as his "leadership" on city council goes, can anyone name one thing other than raise taxes and build a skate park that he has accomplished?

Sounds like he is the type of guy for Richmond.