The poll question was which House of Delegates seat is more likely to be a Republican pickup in November, the 21st District or the 83rd? 63% of you prefered Ron Villanueva's shot at beating Bobby Mathieson to Chris Stolle's odds against Joe Bouchard.
I agree. Speaking to a couple Republican insiders in the wake of the November, 2007 election, the conventional wisdom was that Bouchard had won narrowly and that we could easily oust him in 2009. There are a couple flaws in that argument:
1. Bouchard won despite a poor Get Out The Vote (GOTV) effort that resulted in lackluster turnout in some Democratic-leaning areas. I don't expect the Dems to make that mistake twice, especially with the statewide slate on the ballot this year.
2. Bouchard impresses people that hear him speak in a forum.
Therefore, I believe the 21st will be the easier fight to win.
The new question: will Virginia Beach raise taxes next year? Virginia News Source recently pushed the line that there is a "massive" tax increase coming. Personally, I think that story is a lie to keep their minions in line, as I can't imagine City Council hiking taxes right before 6 incumbents hit the campaign trail for reelection. What do you think?